The Analyst and Experts don't know a thing

ESPN yesterday reported that Aaron Maybin was released by the Buffalo Bills.  This supposed pass rusher out of Penn State in 2 seasons had 0 sacks.  He was praised and hailed coming out of college as a safe and can't miss pick.  Vernon Gholston is another 1st round pick (He was actually Top 5), that never panned out and not sure where in the world he is at right now.  It's funny the logic some of these guys use to say that this player is better than this one, and they love to bring up all kinds of stats and analyze little small details to say this player will be successful or a failure.  The same goes for the NBA draft.  (How Rondo slid down to the 18th pick is a mystery to me.)  I remember hearing Todd McShay calling Josh Freeman a "reach" with the #18 pick because he didn't know how to read defenses and constantly made poor decisions at Kansas St.  Well out of Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman which QB would you want right now.

I remember reading an article about John Calipari and the 1996 draft when he was the head coach of the New Jersey Nets.  Through all the workouts he fell in love with Kobe Bryants talent and felt that he was the player to draft that year.  He fell victim to the perspective of other GMs and supposed draft experts that it was better to "take an accomplished and proven player in Kerry Kittles than an unknown in Kobe Bryant".  Well we know the outcome of this decision.

At the end of the day here is my take on all drafts (including fantasy):

• There really is no exact science:  I have found myself too in recent years looking at analysis on players and watching preseason games.  Experts and analysts can talk you out of a player that you really like and give you all kinds of numbers as to why they are not good.  The draft does require a lot of luck.  You do have GMs and personnel departments that are great at picking talent (The Marlins seem good at finding young talent), but even some of those GMs will admit that there is a good bit of luck involved.
• Some franchises are just better at player development:  Some teams simply are just better at developing and utilizing talent more than others.  What seemed like a bust in Calvin Pace in Arizona turned out to be a pretty good player with the Jets.  Arizona also drafted Thomas Jones and Garrison Hearst and they turn out to have better careers else where.  A top 5 player going to a team with no talent (reason why their drafting in that position) will struggle while a player taken later in that draft will go to a team rich with talent and good talent to help mold and develop that player.  

I know it can be tempting to listen to these analysts, experts, and pundits.  But remember, these were the same guys that said the Giants had absolutely no chance against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.